Forecast of Iran's economy in 2016
Dr. Mohammad Hossein Adib, a member of the faculty of the Faculty of Economics, University of Isfahan, has announced his forecast for the economic situation in Iran in 2016 as follows.
In 2016, the US dollar will remain the strongest currency in the global market. On the other hand, gold and oil will continue to be traded at lower prices in the world market, and rising US interest rates will lead to lower prices for global commodities.
The exchange rate in Iran will sooner or later gain its correct and predictable direction with the increase of prices. Global inflation was 3% compared to March 2009, domestic inflation was 46% and the exchange rate increased by 7%. The difference between domestic and foreign inflation is 43%, of which 7% will be neutralized by the increase in the exchange rate and the gap created will be 36%, which weakens the country's competitive advantage for exports.
In the past, 80% of deposit interest and interest were paid from the place of inflation. Interest has not found its right and predictable direction, so the next three years are the period of interest rate matching and interest rates with a proportional reduction in inflation.
With the easing of sanctions, the cost of imports will be reduced by 10 percent, which means negative import inflation of 10 percent, on the one hand due to rising interest rates in the United States, world commodity prices are falling, and on the other hand due to the opening of Swift , The cost of imports is reduced by ten percent, and this has the same effect of a ten percent reduction in the dollar rate on the economy. Failure to increase the exchange rate in line with the difference between domestic and foreign inflation has weakened the country's comparative export advantage.
The slower rate of decline in interest rates on deposits than the rate of inflation and the slower pace of lower interest rates on inflation has made the use of bank facilities uneconomical, the depositor's interest is paid from the borrower's losses and the bank's losses, a kind of wealth transfer The economy is done to the depositor, in the next two years this trend will be reversed and the dominant pace of the future will be the transfer of wealth from the depositor to the bank.
Iran's economy is capital-oriented With $ 110 oil and 45-cent gas, Iran became "capital-oriented" but with $ 38 oil and 13-cent gas, "Iran's capitalization" has no economic justification, the process of "decentralized" growth only The solution is the Iranian economy.
